Since the Tea Leaves are turining ill in Belarus, it would be good to know what Balurus is about. Apparently no slouch in finished goods. Inflation at reasonable levels and aparently no outward hardships other than a dictatorship.
Patience.
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http://www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/country/belcon.htm
Geography and Size: Located in the European part of the former Soviet Union, Belarus is a landlocked country bordering Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. With land area of 80,154 square miles, Belarus is slightly smaller than Kansas.
Population: 10.5 million (1995 estimate); 77.9 percent are ethnic Belarusians; 13.2 percent are Russians; 4.1 percent are Poles; and 2.9 percent are Ukrainians.
Language: Majority of the population speaks Russian. Belarusian is also widely spoken.
Currency: Belarusian ruble (BRB) is the official currency since May 1992. The official exchange rate was about BRB 229,000 to $1 on March 1, 1999.
National Government: The Belarusian government is composed of four levels: the republican government; six oblasts (provinces); rayons (districts) and cities directly under oblasts; and towns, villages, and settlements that make up the districts. The current president, Alexander Lukashenko, was elected in 1994 for a five-year term.
Political Background: Belarus declared its independence from the Soviet Union on July 27, 1991. Since then, the country has continued to pursue greater economic and other integration with Russia (see below for details).
Alexander Lukashenko was elected as Belarus's first president in July 1994. Since then, president Lukashenko has taken several steps to create closer political, economic, and military links with Russia. The most prominent measure was the signing of a new Belarus-Russian Union Treaty on April 2, 1997. The agreement provides for close coordination of foreign, military, and economic policies between the two countries, including freedom of movement of its citizens, right of residency, property ownership, and participation in local elections. Exactly a year earlier, a treaty on the formation of the Community of Belarus and Russia declared similar goals, including measures to harmonize customs, labor, energy, tax, and investment policies in the two countries. Majority of provisions of both treaties have not been implemented. Other integration efforts with Russia, including a Customs Union involving Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, have bogged down in problems.
In November 1996, Belarus went through a major constitutional crisis caused by president Lukashenko's holding a binding referendum on a new constitution extending his presidential term to 2001 and giving him near absolute power and control over the parliament and the courts. The referendum was widely considered to be undemocratic and flawed.
Following the flawed referendum, worsening human rights problems, and the lack of significant market reforms, the U.S. Government announced the suspension of all U.S. Government-funded assistance to the government of Belarus and state-run institutions. This suspension includes a travel ban on Belarus government officials at the deputy- minister level and above. The U.S. Government also advises potential U.S. investors to seek trade and investment opportunities in neighboring NIS countries due to the high risk of doing business in Belaurs.
Recent Economic Performance
Gross Domestic Production (GDP): There are conflicting claims about Belarus economic performance for 1998. According to the Belarus Ministry for Statistics and Analysis, the country GDP grew by more than 8 percent to an estimated $49 billion, as compared with 1997. Production output by major industry sectors was also reported to have increased by 11 percent. Other economic observers point out that while there was an increase in the industrial production, it was at the cost of soaring volume of unsold industrial goods stocked in enterprises' warehouses. In January 1999, for example, an estimated 85 percent of production output remained unsold.
Inflation: In 1998, a monthly inflation rate average 3.8 percent until August. Following the Russian ruble crash, however, monthly inflation rate jumped to more then 17 percent. Year-end inflation was recorded at 181 percent. Inflation recorded in January of 1999 also remained high at over 16 percent for the month.
One of the chief factors in the rising inflation rate was the collapse of the Belarus ruble (BRB) from BRB 31,000 to $1 at the beginning of the year to BRB 106,000 to $1 by the end. Belaurs's currency devaluation followed that of Russia's at the end of August. The Belarus ruble devaluation continues into the new year. At the end of February 1999, the exchange rate was BRB 229,000 to $1.
Foreign Trade: According to the Foreign Ministry, Belarus's foreign trade turnover totaled $15.5 billion in 1998, down by 3 percent from the previous year. Exports accounted for an estimated $7 billion and imports $8.5 billion. Some 60 percent of Belarus's trade is done with Russia, as much as half in barter deals. Recent trade data indicate that Belarus exports to Russian shrank by as much as 17 percent after the Russian August crises and imports fell by 19 percent.
Major Belarusian exports included vehicles (16.3 percent), machinery (12.8 percent), chemicals (12.5 percent), textile (11.5 percent), and metalware (9.2 percent). Principal imports were energy resources (24.7 percent), machinery and equipment (16.4 percent), metalware (12.6 percent), foodstuff (11 percent).
Industrial Profile
Compared to other Newly Independent States, Belarus has a relatively well developed and a diversified industrial profile. Main industrial activities in Belarus include: machine building, electronics, chemicals, light industry, defense-related products, and prefabricated construction materials. Belarus is also a major producer of trucks, tractors, metal-cutting machinery, electrical motors, household appliances, wood products chemical fibers and threads. Belarus imports between 60-70 percent of raw materials, mostly from Russia, need for the production of finished industrial goods.
According to the Belarus Industry Ministry, the financial crisis in Russia and the rise in producer prices have forced Belarus companies to rely more and more heavily on barter as their primary mode of trade with Russia and the other NIS countries.
